Eustachy/McNelis team up to deliver 2 losses to USM in one day - USM Forum -- Message Board

Date: Dec 21, 2005

Eustachy/McNelis team up to deliver 2 losses to USM in one day

Date: Dec 21, 2005

Right, and last year's 9-2 included a win over LSU. This year's signature win is Tennessee State.

Date: Dec 21, 2005

game dog wrote:

Right, and last year's 9-2 included a win over LSU. This year's signature win is Tennessee State.

Yes, and you can thank Jasper Johnson for that LSU win. Oh, wait, you can't thank him...LE ran him off last year right after that.

Date: Dec 21, 2005

Back to Meltdown wrote:

Men lost to Bradley at home, 43-56 (back to the offensive explosiveness that characterized the earlier part of this season). The Ladies lost at UALR, 70-80. Men now 4-7, while women fall to 3-7. In his first year, LE had the team at 9-2 through the first 11 games. Now 4-7 in year 2. Looks like he has the program headed in right direction. Thanks for the memories, Dr. Thames.

Mr. Meltdown, it is obvious you only post information after a loss by the men or women's teams. Where are your posts after a win?

Date: Dec 21, 2005

A couple of points. Using Sagarin rankings, USM beat the point spread (17). Second, the team is bad but improving. USM has now cracked 300 and may move up with the loss. One of the nice things about the Sagarin rankings is the ability to track how a bad team is doing. The team may be improving even if the won/loss record doesn't show it. I'm not defending LE, just using Sagarin to see how things progress this season.

I wish the folks on Eagle Talk had paid more attention to the football rankings. This is the worst season in a long time for USM football and we'll end up around 60. Our usual end of season is in the 30s. Very few programs have done so much with so little for so long. Now if JB could just leave an offensive coordinator alone. . .

Date: Dec 22, 2005

more numbers wrote:

A couple of points. Using Sagarin rankings, USM beat the point spread (17). Second, the team is bad but improving. USM has now cracked 300 and may move up with the loss. One of the nice things about the Sagarin rankings is the ability to track how a bad team is doing. The team may be improving even if the won/loss record doesn't show it. I'm not defending LE, just using Sagarin to see how things progress this season. I wish the folks on Eagle Talk had paid more attention to the football rankings. This is the worst season in a long time for USM football and we'll end up around 60. Our usual end of season is in the 30s. Very few programs have done so much with so little for so long. Now if JB could just leave an offensive coordinator alone. . .

The pregame Sagarin ratings were 81.22 (Bradley, #64) and 64.43 (USM, #299). That's a difference of 16.79 if my math is correct. The score was 43-56, a 13-point spread. However, home court advantage was worth 4.78 points on Wednesday (see Sagarin), so the Sagarin-adjusted neutral court final score was 43-60.78. That's a difference of 17.78, meaning USM fell short of "covering" Bradley by 0.99 points.

I'm not sure exactly how Sag works, but this may mean that USM will fall further in the rankings (a little bit).

Date: Dec 22, 2005

At 7:34am CST on Thursday, Dec 22, Sagarin still has not upaded his ratings to reflect Wednesday's games. I think the update will arrive within an hour or two. We can check it out then.

Date: Dec 22, 2005

Correct numbers,

Thanks for correcting my imprecision. I'll correct another one of my mistakes. USM is #69 in football, not 60. The end of season will be out after the bowl season. The way Sagarin works, it gives one an interest in any of our season opponents who are in bowl games (i.e., a big win by Alabama would help USM).

For those unfamiliar with Sagarin, here's an incentive to check it out. Go look at where UM and MSU are. The gap between USM and the "other two" is so large that no amount of imprecision would leave any doubt about the best team in the state.

P.S.: BB team needs to play MVSU. According to Sagarin it would be a dogfight.

Date: Dec 22, 2005

A respectable loss vaulted USM to 290. Imagine what an upset win would do.

Date: Dec 22, 2005

Not sure "vaulted" is proper term for a movement from 299 to 290. The team now faces West Florida and Spring Hill back to back --- neither of which will be part of Sagarin's analysis. They should win both, and have six wins. After that, reaching last year's total of 11 wins will be a hard task for them, needing five more. Assuming they get to 11, that total will be less impressive this year given the reconfiguration of C-USA and the number of NAIA teams they would've played.

Everyone seems to think Eustachy will take the Eagles to the top if given more time. Maybe the opposite will happen --- everyone will take a second look at the totality of his career and draw the opposite conclusion than what's out there about him right now.

Date: Dec 22, 2005

eaglehead wrote:

Not sure "vaulted" is proper term for a movement from 299 to 290. The team now faces West Florida and Spring Hill back to back --- neither of which will be part of Sagarin's analysis. They should win both, and have six wins. After that, reaching last year's total of 11 wins will be a hard task for them, needing five more. Assuming they get to 11, that total will be less impressive this year given the reconfiguration of C-USA and the number of NAIA teams they would've played. Everyone seems to think Eustachy will take the Eagles to the top if given more time. Maybe the opposite will happen --- everyone will take a second look at the totality of his career and draw the opposite conclusion than what's out there about him right now.

Nicely put. My thinking is along the same lines but your analysis is a lot more precise than mine (i.e., you probably know more than I do).

Date: Dec 22, 2005

eaglehead wrote:

Not sure "vaulted" is proper term for a movement from 299 to 290. The team now faces West Florida and Spring Hill back to back --- neither of which will be part of Sagarin's analysis. They should win both, and have six wins. After that, reaching last year's total of 11 wins will be a hard task for them, needing five more. Assuming they get to 11, that total will be less impressive this year given the reconfiguration of C-USA and the number of NAIA teams they would've played. Everyone seems to think Eustachy will take the Eagles to the top if given more time. Maybe the opposite will happen --- everyone will take a second look at the totality of his career and draw the opposite conclusion than what's out there about him right now.

It is way too early to judge that but even if he fails, we are no worse off. In case you didn't notice the program was already in the tank. Same for the ladies.

Date: Dec 22, 2005

Of course we'll never know how James Green might have been able to do against the new C-USA, especially if given the recruiting support that Giannini is giving Eustachy. It is early, as you point out.

Date: Dec 25, 2005

more numbers wrote:

A respectable loss vaulted USM to 290. Imagine what an upset win would do.

USM has fallen back down to 294 without playing since loss to Bradley.

Date: Dec 25, 2005

more numbers wrote:

Correct numbers,
Thanks for correcting my imprecision. I'll correct another one of my mistakes. USM is #69 in football, not 60. The end of season will be out after the bowl season. The way Sagarin works, it gives one an interest in any of our season opponents who are in bowl games (i.e., a big win by Alabama would help USM).
For those unfamiliar with Sagarin, here's an incentive to check it out. Go look at where UM and MSU are. The gap between USM and the "other two" is so large that no amount of imprecision would leave any doubt about the best team in the state.
P.S.: BB team needs to play MVSU. According to Sagarin it would be a dogfight.

Um, to use Sagarin rankings to further the "USM is better than UM or MSU" line of thought is a fallacy. I seriously doubt that USM would dominate either team in a head-to-head series.

Date: Dec 26, 2005

If either of the two would agree to play USM, we might get to find out.

Date: Dec 26, 2005

Actually, if you look at the best predicting model (Pure Points) in Sagarin, both Ole Miss and State would be favored to beat USM on a neutral site, not the other way around.