IVAN Could hit Gulf Coast - USM Forum -- Message Board

Date: Sep 13, 2004

IVAN Could hit Gulf Coast

Date: Sep 13, 2004

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm9+shtml/130858.shtml?

the forecast discussion predicts landfall on the mississippi-alabama border.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

quote:
Originally posted by: stinky cheese man
"http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm9+shtml/130858.shtml? the forecast discussion predicts landfall on the mississippi-alabama border."

But look at these other scenarios: COMPUTER MODELS...

Date: Sep 13, 2004

Unless the track changes, HBRG will be on the west side of the storm. Just a little wind and rain:

http://www.weather.com/weather/detail/39401?dayNum=3

Date: Sep 13, 2004

I've already told my students who live outside H'burg to use their judgment about coming to class, whether the Univ closes or not, and that I will not count anybody absent who chooses not to come to school.
Does anybody know what provisions are made for dorm students? Do they have generators, etc. Food? If I lived in the dorm, I would still have some non perishable food and some bottled water on hand.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

yes the left outlier isn't good for new orleans.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

quote:
Originally posted by: A hurricane isn't just a beverage
"
But look at these other scenarios: COMPUTER MODELS...
"

I've been laughing over the UKMET model since 5 AM -- yes, I check the National Hurricane Center page for all the scheduled updates. It appears to have the storm circumnavigating Birmingham AL.

But seriously, I noted that in the "discussion" for the NHC 5 AM EDT report, Forecaster Lawrence stated, "IF I DID NOT HAVE A PREVIOUS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH...I WOULD HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK
EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT." However, Forecaster Stewart is keeping the forecast landfall in the Florida Panhandle for a variety of meteorological reasons. (One cool thing about NHC discussions is that the forecasters "sign" their discussions & provide rationales as well as outright admissions of "I don't know what the devil is going on" in their reports.)

Date: Sep 13, 2004

quote:
Originally posted by: Invictus
"I've been laughing over the UKMET model since 5 AM -- yes, I check the National Hurricane Center page for all the scheduled updates. It appears to have the storm circumnavigating Birmingham AL. But seriously, I noted that in the "discussion" for the NHC 5 AM EDT report, Forecaster Lawrence stated, "IF I DID NOT HAVE A PREVIOUS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH...I WOULD HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT." However, Forecaster Stewart is keeping the forecast landfall in the Florida Panhandle for a variety of meteorological reasons. (One cool thing about NHC discussions is that the forecasters "sign" their discussions & provide rationales as well as outright admissions of "I don't know what the devil is going on" in their reports.)"

The UKMET computer models do contain the disclaimer "Computer models are subject to large errors. Do not use for planning purposes." Of course nobody except some mathematicians and college sophomores claim that mathematics is a science. It is more correctly characterized as the "handmaiden" of the sciences whereas physics is the "queen" of the sciences. As Stephen Senn says in his 2003 book "Dicing with Death: Chance, Risk and Health" published by Cambridge Press: "If mathematics is the handmaiden of the sciences, statistics is its whore."

Date: Sep 13, 2004

quote:
Originally posted by: Imprecision Personified
""If mathematics is the handmaiden of the sciences, statistics is its whore.""

Whoo hoo! Now everyone knows why I decided to become a statistician!

Date: Sep 13, 2004

quote:
Originally posted by: Invictus
" Whoo hoo! Now everyone knows why I decided to become a statistician!"

I knew my posting wouldn't anger you. You seem to be tough guy with a sense of humor. A rare commodity these days.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

Gentlemen (and I am using the term loosely),

I forgave you in the Brookhaven thread (though why you would want to greet Dolly Parton twice escapes me). I saw the entertaining Dolly Parton on my last bus trip to Opreyland with the other ladies of the Missionary society. She acknowledged me after a single greeting and then was generous enough to write a check for the Save Mississippi Tots Through Teens campaign (SMTTT) designed to keep smut from reaching the eyes of our most precious possessions. Then I forgave you again in the SeeMore thread because "Best Little...In Texas" is truly one of my favorite musicals. I have a grandniece who appeared in the Beaufort production just last year. Now, however, you've gone too far. Making nasty at the weather folks. There isn't a thread left for good clean fun.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: IVAN Could hit Gulf Co

Date: Sep 13, 2004

quote:
Originally posted by: Invictus
".... I hadn't heard the "whore of the sciences" quote before, so I guess you can say that I'm just a standard deviant. "

You slay me, Invictus!

Date: Sep 13, 2004

IVAN Could hit Gulf Coast

Date: Sep 13, 2004

quote:
Originally posted by: Jameela Lares
"I feel duty bound to note that theology was queen of the sciences until very recently, say a couple hundred of years ago. (Science used to just mean "knowing," from the Latin _scio_, _scire_, "to know.") "

Good point, Jameela Lares. And the so-called "hard sciences" where incorporated within philosophy until they broke off into separate disciplines. Their "precision" today is reflected largely by the time when they left philosophy and became independent. Physics, the most precise (although not as precise as some would have us believe) appears to have been the first to go, so maybe that is why physics is refereed to as "queen" of the sciences. Then chemistry (the next precise), and then Biology (even less precise). Much later, other discplines split from philosophy - psychology first and then sociology. The point of my original post was that mathematics, while essential to the sciences, is not one of them. It is the handmaiden of the sciences. (We're sort of off the theme of the tread a bit here.)

Date: Sep 13, 2004

I would still like to know what to tell dorm-dwelling freshmen.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

quote:
Originally posted by: New Adjunct
"I would still like to know what to tell dorm-dwelling freshmen."

That's up to Residence Life and Student Affairs. As a faculty member you can be supportive and point them to official sources.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

Thanks, Flash. I know you're right. It's just my Inner Anxious Parent coming through.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

quote:
Originally posted by: Imprecision Personified
As Stephen Senn says in his 2003 book "Dicing with Death: Chance, Risk and Health" published by Cambridge Press: "If mathematics is the handmaiden of the sciences, statistics is its whore.""

Uh oh, Dr. MMR should NOT see this post. Quick, hide it someone.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

on a more serious note the new computer models of the storm's track take ivan closer to us. i know people are leaving new orleans. here's a link to the latest computer storm tracks:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html

Date: Sep 13, 2004

They are now saying it will be Category 4 when it hits. This looks very bad.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

if not category 4 a strong category 3. time to batten down the hatches.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

The last report I heard on the cane is that it is once again a cat 5. Now, looking at the weather satillite, once it hits the warm gulf waters, yall could be in for some nasty ass weather. Please, all of you take caution and care.

And may SFT be caught in the middle of it.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

FYI........................

The American Red Cross has issued a statement saying "prepare" for IVAN: water, canned foods, etc. The Governor has issued a state of emergency because of IVAN. Most if not all Gulf Coast schools will be closed Wednesday. Southern Miss's game with CAL will be rescheduled (Dec 4?????).

Link to American Red Cross info on getting prepared for (all types of) emergencies:

http://www.redcross.org/prepare/makeaplan.html

If your new to the faculty and to Hattiesburg, do what you need to do tomorrow to prepare for IVAN, because Thursday it will hit.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

let me add to green hornet's comment. couple of basics--fill your car with gas. if you have an atm card (now i don't but i have no money) get what money you think you will need out. with a power loss gas pumps and atms don't work. if your have a refrigerator with a freezer turn it to maximum cold so if power goes out your frozen food will last longer.

Date: Sep 13, 2004

Yes, please take care, all of you on the Gulf Coast. I was in Hattiesburg during Hurricane Georges in 1998, and we didn't have electricity for 3 days (USM was closed for those 3 days). This one looks serious...I'll echo SCM's comments....if you're new to the area, take the hurricane warnings seriously! Gas up the car, get the bottled water and flashlights, batteries for the radio, ready-to-eat food, etc. 3 days w/no electricity (and small children, I might add!) was no fun!

FYI...I hear that New Orleans is evacuating and classes have been cancelled at all of the universities there for the remainder of the week.

Date: Sep 14, 2004

Here's a new map just to scare those who've not been through this before. (Those of us who have are already scared.)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904P+GIF/140853P.gif

Date: Sep 14, 2004

Another hint is to fill your washing machine -- that will be water clean enough to wash face & hands as well as to flush. I plan to fill my rolling outdoor garbage can with water for flushing (that can be important if you have a lot of people in the house.) I also fill all my Tupperware stuff with water and put them in the freezer for extra cold, extra ice, and extra water. In fact, most years I keep containers of water and bags of extra ice in the freezer. The food will last an extra day if the freezer is full, but really the best thing is to fire up the grill and start cooking when the power goes. UNPLUG the computer, TV, etc -- as I understand it, the power can spike when it comes back on and fry the electronics.

Date: Sep 14, 2004

Thanks for all the suggestions.

Some other thoughts:

Give blood

Get chainsaw blade sharpened

Remember your pets

Date: Sep 14, 2004

Any news about USM class cancellations (either on Gulf Park or H'burg campuses)?