Baseball Question - USM Forum -- Message Board

Date: Jan 24, 2006

Baseball Question

Date: Jan 24, 2006

joright wrote:

I notice that USM, OM, and MSU want to be national powers in baseball. USM's season begins on Wednesday, Feb. 15, followed by weekend series. Ole Miss begins with a weekend series on Feb 17-19. MSU begins with a weekend series the following weekend (late Feb). Meanwhile, LSU begins with a weekend series on Feb 10-12 agains N. Florida, and then plays Centenary on Feb 14, and on from there. Likewise, Alabama begins with a weekend set Feb 10-12 against Winthrop on Feb 14, and on from there. Auburn begins with a weekend series Feb 3-5 against Virginia Military, followed by a weekend set on Feb 10-12 against Florida State, and on from there. And, it happens like this year after year. Why do the MS schools, which seem to want to emphasize baseball, wait so long to get started on the season?

Sorry, meant to say that Alabama plays Samford on Feb 14th, after their weekend series against Winthrop.

Date: Jan 25, 2006

joright wrote:

I notice that USM, OM, and MSU want to be national powers in baseball. USM's season begins on Wednesday, Feb. 15, followed by weekend series. Ole Miss begins with a weekend series on Feb 17-19. MSU begins with a weekend series the following weekend (late Feb). Meanwhile, LSU begins with a weekend series on Feb 10-12 agains N. Florida, and then plays Centenary on Feb 14, and on from there. Likewise, Alabama begins with a weekend set Feb 10-12 against Winthrop on Feb 14, and on from there. Auburn begins with a weekend series Feb 3-5 against Virginia Military, followed by a weekend set on Feb 10-12 against Florida State, and on from there. And, it happens like this year after year. Why do the MS schools, which seem to want to emphasize baseball, wait so long to get started on the season?

Did I miss something?...Is the inference here that in order to be a baseball power you must start your season a week earlier than Feb. 15th?...Will starting a week earlier make you more competitive?...Or would that have something to do with talent and coaching?...Two things USM is blessed with...

Date: Jan 25, 2006

I'm not sure that the inference is national powers start first. What I wonder is why USM wouldn't start as early as AU or UA or LSU so as to build their NCAA Tournament resume by playing more games, and against varied opponents. The "burden of proof" in terms of getting at-large invitations to postseason play falls harder on USM than these other places. Why isn't USM taking advantage of being located near the I-10 parallel and starting at the first of February?

Date: Jan 25, 2006

The "burden of proof" will be how they play against pre-season top 25 schools they will be playing: Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tulane and Rice.

Date: Jan 25, 2006

Advocate wrote:

The "burden of proof" will be how they play against pre-season top 25 schools they will be playing: Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tulane and Rice.

To follow up using joright's analysis, here are the Top 25 teams on Auburn's schedule: Florida State, Arizona State, South Carolina, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU, Florida, and Arkansas. That's what I meant by "burden of proof" falling harder on USM --- there is less margin for error in USM's schedule, which could have been mitigated some by staring earlier and playing some solid nonconference opponents. A 3-game set with Missouri or Clemson would've been very attractive, for instance.

Date: Jan 25, 2006

westchester wrote:

...by playing more games, ...

When I counted, we were playing the same number of games as these other schools (+/- 1) so it looks like scheduling is more the issue. Bigger name schools have greater power in negotiations and therefore can spread out their season to have more breaks. Or there is no one left in the first week since all the big name schools pick all of the no-name schools to get some initial wins and that leaves mid-level schools like USM out. Or maybe we are that concerned about our student athletes that we wanted to give them one more week before they have to start missing classes. I don't know, but I don't think this is a big deal.

Date: Jan 25, 2006

manova wrote:

"I don't know, but"

I agree with the first three words. To bad you put the qualifier after them. I thought you had it!!

Date: Jan 28, 2006

westchester wrote:

I'm not sure that the inference is national powers start first. What I wonder is why USM wouldn't start as early as AU or UA or LSU so as to build their NCAA Tournament resume by playing more games, and against varied opponents. The "burden of proof" in terms of getting at-large invitations to postseason play falls harder on USM than these other places. Why isn't USM taking advantage of being located near the I-10 parallel and starting at the first of February?

I wouldn't say there is any heavier burden for USM. CUSA was getting NCAA 4-5 bids per year during the last 3-4 years and that was when CUSA was a weaker baseball conference. Baseball was the one sport which was not affected in a negative way by realignment. Most followers of college baseball (i.e: Collegiate Baseball, Baseball America, etc.) consider CUSA to know be among the elite baseball conferences in the nation because of the additions of Rice and Central Florida (UCF has the pre-season pitcher of the year for CUSA, even though Rice and Tulane have deep bullpens). Rice, Tulane, USM and Houston are considered by both Collegiate Baseball and Baseball America to be the elite teams in the conference.

It's widely regarded that East Carolina was set back by Mazey's surprise dismissal in the off-season, but Memphis, UAB and MArshall (who doesn't even have a baseball stadium of their own) are considered to be the weak links in the conference while UCF is the unknown element. The Knights have been to 7 consecutive NCAA appearances and have frequently appearred in the Top 25 during that time, but noone is sure how they will react to being in a conference like CUSA.

Who is a top 25 team in baseball is hard to peg because there are so many polls. One poll has USM ranked 19th in the nation, while others rank the Golden Eagles in the high 20s-low 30s (not every poll stops at number 25).

Date: Jan 28, 2006

I've been following college baseball for quite some time. I've known players and coaches who have coached in college world series, and most all of them say the same thing. It's not your conference games that keep you out of the NCAA baseball tournament. It's the games you lose to out of conference teams that keep you out of the tournament.

In elite baseball conferences like the PAC-10, Big 12, SEC, and CUSA, you're going to both win and lose your fair share of conference games. Superior teams will lose fewer games. 30 wins is a magic number in college baseball. If you want to get a shot to play in a regional, you've got to have at least 30 wins.

That's where the out of conference games come in. You've got to win the lion's share of those games to fill out your win column. For instance, USM plays 8 CUSA weekend series (3 games each) this season. Sweeping a weekend series at home is difficult, and winning 2 of 3 on the road is difficult. As such, I would expect USM to go 12-12 in CUSA play. USM has 32 other games scheduled before the CUSA tournament. To be safe, USM needs at least to go 18-14 in those games. Since 12 of those 32 are away from Pete Taylor Park, USM needs to be nearly perfect at home. As a side note, 30 wins would put USM on the outside of the bubble for the NCAA, while 40 would be a much more sure thing. Records also play into who gets to host an NCAA regional.

Now, if I am interpreting the original poster's meaning correctly, the relatively late start does put USM at a disadvantage, albeit small. There is a firm start date for the regular season, a firm end date for the regular season, and a limit on the number of total games a team can play. By starting late, USM has only to choices: play the same number of games in a shorter period of time (meaning that the pace of the season is more hectic) or play fewer games (calming the pace somewhat). Playing more games is obviously beneficial, as it gives teams more opportunities to put wins on the board, but it means that the team works harder in a shorter period.

This season, USM has at least one midweek game every week from 2/15/06 until 4/26/06, including 3 weeks with two midweek games. I agree that the disadvantage is small, but there is some advantage to starting a little earlier and getting to spread your games out so that you don't have too many weeks with 5 games in a 7-day period -- that's what wears arms out.

I think Corky Palmer's a good coach, but until he gets out of a regional I'll still think he's fallable.